Social Security's 2027 Raise Is Projected at 3.8 Percent. A Rising Medicare Premium Could Eat Into It.

A 3.8 percent raise sounds like relief. For retirees who watch every monthly deposit, though, the number that matters is what is left after fixed costs, and Medicare has claimed a large share of the raise before.

What You Should Know

The Senior Citizens League projects Social Security’s 2027 cost-of-living adjustment will land at 3.8 percent, according to a July 14, 2026 release from the group. That forecast is one full percentage point above this year’s 2.8 percent adjustment.

If that 3.8 percent figure were in effect today, the average monthly benefit would rise by $73.62, from $1,937.53 to $2,011.15, the group said. The official 2027 figure will not be set until the Social Security Administration calculates it in October 2026, so 3.8 percent remains a forecast, not a final number.

The Money Trail

The larger raise still has to survive Medicare. In 2026, the standard Medicare Part B premium rose to $202.90, up $17.90 and the first time it topped $200, an increase that consumed roughly a third of that year’s benefit bump. The 2027 Part B premium has not been set, and CMS typically announces it in November; early estimates suggest a smaller increase, but the amount is not yet confirmed.

That interaction is why a bigger headline raise does not always translate into a bigger check. Whatever Medicare adds to the premium is deducted before the payment reaches the beneficiary.

The Receipts

The Senior Citizens League said its projection held steady at 3.8 percent from June into July, easing slightly from an earlier 3.9 percent spring reading as inflation cooled. The group also pointed to the 2026 Social Security Trustees Report, which projects the retirement trust fund (OASI) will reach insolvency in the fourth quarter of 2032 without congressional action.

Congress reintroduced the Social Security 2100 Act, which would raise benefits and change how the annual adjustment is calculated, but GovTrack gives the bill a 0 percent chance of passage this session, the group noted.

What Happens Next

The Social Security Administration will confirm the actual 2027 adjustment in October 2026, based on final inflation data through September. CMS is expected to announce the 2027 Part B premium in November. Until both land, retirees are watching two numbers that together decide what actually shows up in the January check.

References: The Senior Citizens League | CMS (Medicare Part B 2026 premium)